The Oculus Quest 2 has been the most well-liked VR headset on the planet for the previous couple of years – dominating gross sales and utilization charts with its mix of stable efficiency, wonderful software program library and, most significantly, affordability.
Now its successor – the Meta Quest 3 – is following in its footsteps.
Simply 4 months after launch it’s the third hottest headset used on Steam (and can doubtless be the second hottest within the subsequent Steam {Hardware} Survey). What’s extra, whereas we estimate the Quest 3’s not promoting fairly in addition to the Quest 2 was on the four-month mark, it nonetheless seems to be successful (plus, decrease gross sales figures are anticipated contemplating it’s nearly double the launch worth of the Quest 2).
Regardless of its increased price, $499.99 / £479.99 / AU$799.99 remains to be comparatively inexpensive within the VR area, and its early success continues the continuing development in VR that accessibility is the make or break think about a VR gadget’s reputation.
There’s one thing to be stated for high-end {hardware} such because the Apple Vision Pro bringing the wow issue again to VR (how will you not be impressed by its crisp OLED shows and ingenious eye-and-hand-tracking system), however I’ll admit I used to be anxious that its launch – and announcement of different high-end, and high-priced, headsets – would see VR return to its early, much less inexpensive days.
Now I’m extra assured than ever that we’ll see Apple’s rumored cheaper Imaginative and prescient Professional follow-up and different budget-friendly {hardware} sooner fairly than later.
Rising up the charts
In keeping with the Steam Hardware Survey, which tracks the recognition of {hardware} for taking part Steam customers, 14.05% of all Steam VR gamers used a Quest 3 final month. That’s a 4.78% rise in its reputation over the earlier month’s outcomes and means it’s inside spitting distance of the quantity two spot, which is at present held by the Valve Index – 15% of customers choose it over different VR headsets, even three-and-a-half years after its launch.
It has a methods to go earlier than it reaches the highest spot, nonetheless, with the Oculus Quest 2 most well-liked by 40.64% of Steam VR gamers. The Quest 3’s predecessor has held this high spot for a few years now, and it’s unlikely to lose to the Quest 3 or one other headset for some time. Although the Quest 3 is doing properly for itself, it’s not promoting fairly as quick because the Quest 2.
Utilizing Steam {Hardware} Survey knowledge for January 2024 (4 months after its launch) and knowledge from January 2021 (4 months after the Quest 2’s launch) – in addition to common Steam participant counts for these months based mostly on SteamDB knowledge – it seems that the Quest 3 has offered about 87% as many items because the Quest 2 did on the identical level in its life.
Contemplating the Quest 3 is priced at $499.99 / £479.99 / AU$799.99, a good bit greater than the $299 / £299 / AU$479 the Quest 2 price at launch, to even come near matching the gross sales pace of its predecessor is spectacular. And the Quest 2 did promote very properly out of the gate.
We don’t have actual Quest 2 gross sales knowledge from its early days – Meta solely highlights when the gadget passes sure main milestones – however we do know that after 5 months, its complete gross sales had been higher than the total sales of all other Oculus VR headsets combined, a few of which had been out for over 5 years. Meta’s gone on to promote roughly 20 million Quest 2s, according to a March 2023 leak. That is about as quick because the Xbox Collection X is believed to have offered, which launched across the identical time.
This 87% of Quest 2 gross sales determine could be taken with a pinch of salt – you’ll find out how I obtained to this quantity on the backside of this piece; it required pulling knowledge from a couple of sources and making some cheap assumptions – however that quantity and the Quest 2 and three’s reputation on Steam reveals that affordability remains to be essentially the most highly effective driving pressure within the VR area. So, I hope different headset makers are paying consideration.
A scary costly VR future
The Apple Imaginative and prescient Professional is much from unpopular. Reviews counsel that between 160,000 and 200,000 preorders were placed on the headset forward of its launch on February 2, 2024 (a few of these orders have been put on eBay with ridiculously high markups and others have been returned by some disappointed Vision Pro customers).
The early reputation is sensible. No matter Mark Zuckerberg says about the superiority of the Quest 3, the Apple Imaginative and prescient Professional is the perfect of the best VR headsets from a technical perspective. There’s some debate on the consolation and immersive software program aspect of issues, however eye-tracking, ridiculously crisp OLED shows, and a wonderful design do make up for that.
Sadly, thanks to those high-end specs and a few ridiculous design decisions – just like the outer OLED show for EyeSight (which lets an onlooker see the wearer’s eyes whereas they’re sporting the gadget) – the headset is fairly dear coming in at $3,499 for the 256GB mannequin (it’s not but out there exterior the US).
Seeing this, and the moment renewed consideration Apple has drawn to the VR area – with high-end rivals just like the Samsung XR headset now on the way in which – I’ll admit I used to be somewhat involved we would see a return to VR’s early, much less accessible days. In these days, you’d spend round $1,000 / £1,000 / AU$1,500 on a headset and the identical once more (or extra) on a VR-ready PC.
Apple has a method of driving the tech dialog and growth within the route it chooses. Be it turning extra area of interest tech right into a mainstream affair prefer it did for smartwatches with the Apple Watch or renaming well-established phrases by sheer pressure of will (VR computing and 3D video at the moment are completely known as spatial computing and spatial video after Apple began utilizing these phrases).
Whereas, sure, there’s one thing to be stated for the wow issue of top-of-the-line tech, I hoped we wouldn’t be swamped with the stuff whereas extra budget-friendly choices get forgotten about as a result of that is the way in which Apple has moved the business with its Imaginative and prescient Professional.
The numbers within the Steam {Hardware} Survey have assuaged these fears. It reveals that significant finances {hardware} – just like the Quest 2 and three, which, regardless of being newer, have much less spectacular shows and specs than many older, pricier fashions – remains to be too in style to be going anyplace anytime quickly.
If something, I’m extra assured than ever that Apple, Samsung, and the like must get their own affordable VR headsets out the door quickly. Particularly the non-Apple firms that may’t depend on a legion of rabid followers able to eat up every little thing they launch.
In the event that they don’t launch budget-friendly – however nonetheless worthwhile – VR headsets, then Meta may as soon as once more be left as the one actual contender on this sector of VR. Positive, I just like the Meta headsets I’ve used, however nothing helps spur on higher tech and/or costs than correct competitors. And that is one thing Meta is proving it doesn’t actually have proper now.
The place did my knowledge come from?
It’s necessary to know the place knowledge has come from and what assumptions have been made by individuals dealing with that knowledge, however, equally, not everybody finds this attention-grabbing, and it will possibly get fairly lengthy and distracting. So, I’ve put this part on the backside for these excited by seeing my work on the 87% gross sales determine comparability between the Oculus Quest 2 and Meta Quest 3 4 months after their respective launches.
As I discussed above, many of the knowledge for this piece has been gathered from the Steam Hardware Survey. I needed to depend on the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine to see some historic Steam {Hardware} Survey knowledge as a result of the outcomes web page solely reveals the newest month’s figures.
When trying on the relative reputation of headsets in any given month, I may simply learn off the figures within the survey outcomes. Nonetheless, to check the Quest 2 and Quest 3’s four-month gross sales to one another, I had to make use of participant counts from SteamDB and make a couple of assumptions.
The primary assumption is that the Steam {Hardware} Survey’s knowledge is constant for all customers. As a result of Steam customers need to opt-in to the survey, when it says that 2.24% of Steam customers used a VR headset in January 2024, what it actually means is that 2.24% of Steam {Hardware} Survey individuals used a VR headset that month. There’s no cause to consider the survey’s pattern isn’t consultant of the entire of Steam’s person base, and that is an assumption that’s usually taken with no consideration when taking a look at {Hardware} Survey knowledge. But when I’m going to interrupt down the place my numbers come from, I’d as properly do it totally.
Secondly, I needed to assume that Steam customers solely used one VR headset every month and that they didn’t share their headsets with different Steam customers. These assumptions permit me to say that if the Meta Quest 3 was used for 14.05% of Steam VR periods, then 14.05% of Steam customers with a VR headset (which is 2.24% of Steam’s complete customers) owned a Quest 3 in January 2024. Not making these assumptions results in an undercount and overcount, respectively, in order that they kinda cancel one another out. Additionally, with out this assumption, I couldn’t proceed past this step as I’d lack the info I would like.
Valve doesn’t publish Steam’s complete person numbers, and the final time it printed month-to-month lively person knowledge was in 2021 – and that was a median for the entire yr fairly than for every month. It additionally doesn’t say how many individuals participate within the {Hardware} Survey. All it does publish is how many individuals are utilizing Steam proper now. This info is gathered by SteamDB in order that I and different individuals can see Steam’s Each day Lively Person (DAU) common for January 2021 and January 2024 (in addition to different months, however I solely care about these two).
My penultimate assumption was that the proportion of DAUs in comparison with the whole variety of Steam customers in January 2021 is similar because the proportion of DAUs in comparison with the whole variety of Steam customers in January 2024. The precise proportion of DAUs to the whole doesn’t matter (it may very well be 1% or 100%). By assuming it stays constant between these two months, I can take the DAU figures I’ve – 25,295,361 in January 2024 and 24,674,583 in January 2021 – multiply them by the proportion of Steam customers with a Quest 3 and Quest 2 throughout these months, respectively – 0.31% and 0.37% – then lastly examine the numbers to 1 one other.
The result’s that the variety of Steam customers with a Quest 3 in January 2024 is 87.05% of the variety of Steam customers with a Quest 2 in January 2021.
My remaining assumption was that Quest headset house owners haven’t grow to be kind of more likely to join their gadgets to a PC to play Steam VR. So if it is 87% as in style on Steam 4 months after their respective launches, the Quest 3 has offered 87% in addition to the Quest 2 did after their first 4 months on sale.
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